This was a genuinely eventful week. A jobs report that came in negative, an inflation report that came in calm, and a Federal Reserve conversation that flipped from "might they raise" to "they will probably sit still." Meanwhile Conshohocken quietly kept doing the thing it has been doing for a month.
Part One: What rates actually did
Start with the news that landed after most people stopped paying attention. The July jobs report came out and payrolls printed at negative 23,000, meaning the economy shed jobs. Revisions took another 103,000 off prior months. Unemployment held at 4.1 percent and wage growth cooled to 3.2 percent, a cycle low.
Rates rallied on that. Then on Wednesday the July inflation report came in at 0.1 percent for the month and 3.4 percent for the year, down from 3.5 percent in June, with core at 2.5 percent annually. Futures traders moved to a 64 percent chance the Fed simply holds at 3.50 to 3.75 percent in September, up from 52 percent the day before.
I want to be clear about how big that shift is, because it went the opposite direction from what most people assume. Forty eight hours earlier, the live question was whether the Fed would raise rates in September. Not cut. Raise. That question is now mostly off the table.
By Thursday, Freddie Mac's weekly survey printed 6.67 percent on the 30 year, down from 6.69, and 5.96 percent on the 15 year, down from 6.01 and under six for the first time in weeks. A year ago those were 6.58 and 5.71. Sam Khater's line was deliberately boring: "Mortgage rates remained relatively stable this week at 6.67%." After the month we have had, boring is the good outcome.
Two cautions before anyone gets carried away. Shelter costs were roughly two thirds of the entire monthly inflation increase, so housing is still doing the heavy lifting on inflation. And energy fell 1.5 percent for the month but is still up 14.7 percent year over year, with gas up nearly 25 percent. August data decides September, not this print.
And buyers noticed immediately. Applications for the week ending August 7 rose 3.6 percent overall, with purchase up 3 percent and refinance up 5 percent, after five straight weeks of rising rates. That is the most useful number in this whole section, because it shows demand is sitting right there waiting for any excuse at all.
Part Two: The greater Philly picture
Still no July county release, which is now genuinely overdue, so these remain June figures: Montgomery County 979 closed sales, up 10.4 percent, a $521,000 median, up 4.2 percent, and 1,244 active listings, up 17 percent, at six days on market. Chester County 661 closed, a $627,000 median up 4.5 percent, 852 actives up 13.1 percent, also six days. Philadelphia 1,347 closed, down 5 percent, a $315,000 median, nineteen days on market.
The most interesting regional development is that builders are moving in. Three separate new construction listings appeared inside my watch areas in about a week, priced at roughly $799,900, $975,000 and $1,295,000. Two in Conshohocken, one in Plymouth Meeting.
That is worth explaining, because new construction behaves differently from resale. Timelines are longer, appraisals are trickier, and buyers often need one time close financing or extended rate locks. Most local lenders are not set up for it. If builders keep testing this market, that gap is going to matter.
Blue Bell had the most dramatic week of any single town. Seven new listings came on over one weekend, six of them priced between $525,000 and $790,000, which is the move up bracket waking up all at once. Then on Friday the same town produced a $309,000 two bedroom, the cheapest listing it has shown all summer. A town that has been a $500,000 to $1.2 million story for weeks suddenly had an entry point.
Part Three: Conshohocken, by the numbers
Two things happened here and they point the same direction.
First, a fifth Conshohocken home cut its price for the second time. That now makes five separate homes in this one small borough that have each repriced twice inside about two weeks. Their total reductions run from $20,000 at the smallest to $40,100 at the largest, or roughly 2.8 percent to 7.7 percent off original asking.
One seller repricing is a seller. Two is a coincidence. Five doing it twice each is a market telling you something, and I think what it is telling you is that spring pricing has finally run out of road.
Second, the entry level keeps widening. Conshohocken now has six homes listed under $400,000, up from five earlier in the week. Their prices per square foot run from $140 to $372, which is an enormous spread inside a single price bracket and tells you these are very different houses. At current rates, with twenty percent down, the monthly principal and interest on those six ranges from roughly $1,801 to $2,053. Taxes, insurance and any condo fee sit on top of that.
For context on how unusual that is, this borough spent most of the spring as a $450,000 and up town. Six homes with a three in front of them is a different conversation entirely.
There was one more thing I noticed that is worth flagging. Among those six, the cheapest per square foot is sitting at about $140 a foot when the next cheapest is $238. That kind of gap is either the best value in town or there is something structural behind it, a condo fee, a ground rent, or condition. Either way it is worth a phone call before assuming.
The takeaway
The rate scare ended, the entry level widened, and five sellers in one borough told you twice what they are actually willing to take.
Both ends of this market moved toward the buyer in the same week. That has not been true at any point this year.
Warmly,
Mackenzie
Mortgage Mom, Loansteady Mortgage